Forex Trading Outlook – DailyFX News August 19, 2009

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Daily analysis of the US forex market trading session with DailyFX Currency Strategist John Kicklighter. Includes coverage of economic and financial market news, as well as an outlook for the day ahead and trading ideas.

Amid Credit Crunch, Retailers Bring Back Layaway

For years it was a staple of department stores that allowed cash-strapped customers to reserve merchandise and pay it off later. But layaway largely faded away by the 1990s, replaced by the convenience of credit cards. Now, it's staging a comeback.

Forex Traders Anticipate Heavy News Week

The dollar was slightly more volatile over the past week than usual, and the explanations for this have been getting trickier by the day. As for this week, forex traders are advised to take positions on trades, as a string of data releases coming out of U.S., Europe and Japan are likely to affect the greenback's main currency crosses.

USD - Dollar Finishes a Volatile Week Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls

The Dollar underwent a volatile trading week against the major currencies. The EUR/USD was traded between the 1.4200 and 1.4400 levels without showing a clear direction. The Dollar continued the rising trend against the Pound, yet saw bearish activity against the Yen.

The greenback's unstable trading week took place largely due to the mixed results published from the U.S economy. While the Consumer Confidence report showed a surprising improvement in consumers' confidence regarding their financial outlook. Also, the housing sector continues to show signs of recovery as 433,000 New Home Sales were sold during July, marking a 9-month record. The Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped by 1.0% in the second quarter of the year, showing that the American economy continues to contract, despite some optimistic reports.

In addition, the weekly Unemployment Claims report showed that 570,000 individuals have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, questioning that the employment conditions in the U.S have entered a recovery process.

Looking ahead to this week, many impacting data is expected from the U.S economy, and above all the Non-Farm Employment Change report which is expected on Friday. The main publications for this week will include the Pending Home Sales on Tuesday. A positive result could strengthen the notion that the housing sector is recovering, which could boost the Dollar. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index on Tuesday is also likely to create strong volatility in the market. Yet the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday is likely to affect the Dollar the most. Traders are also advised to follow the ADP forecast on Wednesday, as its results have proven to impact the Dollar in the short-term.

EUR - EUR Recovers before the Weekend on Positive German Data

Last week, the Euro saw volatile activity against the major currencies. The EUR first dropped against the Dollar, just to rise back up. The EUR saw a strong bullish trend against the Pound, as the EUR/GBP pair rose over the 0.8820 level. However, the Euro dropped almost 400 pips against the Yen.

The EUR began last week's trading with falling trends largely due to the positive economic data published from the U.S economy. However, as the week proceeded, a batch of positive economic data saw light from the Euro-Zone as well, jumping the Euro back up. The German Business Climate report saw an 11-month high, proving that businesses in Germany feel the economy is on the right track to recover from the global crisis.

Also last week, the German Consumer Climate index rose by 3.7 points, marking a 15-month record, supporting the sentiment that the German economy could be the first leading economy to pull out of recession. Considering that Germany holds the largest and strongest economy in the Euro-Zone, a continuation of such data is likely to strengthen the Euro against the major currencies.

As for this week, many interesting publications are expected from the Euro-Zone. The German Retails Sales is scheduled on Tuesday 06:00 GMT. This report measures the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, and is considered to be a reliable indication for an economy's health. A positive data is likely to boost the Euro. Another publication that traders are advised to focus on is the Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected on Wednesday. Current expectations are that the European GDP has dropped by 0.1% during the second quarter of the year. However, a surprising result is likely to affect the Euro, and traders should be prepared.

JPY - Japanese Elections Support Yen Towards 7-Week High against USD

Last week, traders that went long on the Yen saw nice profits. The Yen rose close to 300 pips against the Dollar, sending the USD/JPY towards the 92.50 level. The JPY also rose against the Euro, and marked over 600 pips rise against the Pound.

It seems that the Yen was boosted last week much due to the end of election uncertainty following a win for the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. The elections' end even supported the Yen up to a seven week high against the Dollar. Another reason for the Yen's appreciation last week is the trade balance report which was published on Tuesday. This report measured the difference in value between imported and exported goods during July, and delivered a 0.19T figure. This means that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is succeeding in its target to recover the Japanese economy with strong exporting activity. The BoJ keeps its low interest rates mainly for this purpose, and it seems that as long as Japanese exports will continue to expand, the Yen is likely to rise further and further.

As for the week ahead, a batch of data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are advised to focus on the monetary Base and the Capital Spending reports, as they are likely to create large volatility in the market. The Capital Spending report measures the total value of new capital expenditures made by businesses, and thus tends to have a large impact on the Yen.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Recovers to $73 a Barrel

After starting last week with sharp losses, Crude Oil managed to recover and to resume towards $73 a barrel. Two main reasons led to Crude Oil's recovery since mid-week. First, optimistic data from Germany and the U.S have increased speculations that demand for energy will rise. A very relieving assumption is that as the global economies' condition will improve, demand for oil will rise in accordance. The other reason was the drop of the Dollar against the Euro and the Yen. As a commodity, Crude Oil is traded in Dollars, and thus a drop of the Dollar usually leads to a rising trend for oil, and vice versa.

As for the week ahead, traders are advised to follow the leading publications from the major economies, as they are likely to dominate Crude Oil's value. Traders should also bear in mind that positive data from the major economies is likely to create speculations regarding energy demand which tends to boost crude oil. In addition, the Crude Oil Inventories report is scheduled for Wednesday. This report is also likely to have a large impact on crude oil's value and traders should follow its outcomes.

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Are Your Sure You Are Ready To Trade Penny Stocks – Think Again

Would you buy a place without seeing it, because your friend said the area was great? Would you buy an automobile without going for a test drive? While these items may cost more than a normal penny stock investment, many traders will chance big amounts of money, simply to buy into the dream. They will jump in, buy the stock, and sit and hope. If you want to make money trading penny stocks, you need to be smarter than that.

If you need to earn income trading penny stocks, you need to perform some research. These are some tips :

The sad fact is that many new speculators dash in to buy stocks in a stock with little apart from a friendly tip from a well-intentioned coworker. Think how much more effective your enterprise into stock trading would be if you took the time to exact research that friendly tip rather than jumping into the purchasing process. Here are a couple of things you need to actually look at about a company before making an investment in their stock and how these things may have an effect on the return on your investment.

Revenue

The revenue of a company is how much cash that company is actually earning. There are plenty of penny stocks that are literally in the development phase and might have no revenues at all or are developing new releases that can have a massive impact on the organization’s revenue and growth potential. You should be nervous about corporations that have been around for a bit that have almost no revenue. You will also need to fastidiously watch growing corporations that are trending towards new markets to make sure that their money are keeping pace with their growth.

Earnings

cash are a clue at potential takings. All corporations share one common goal : making profits. As money increase and exceed costs the wizardry begins to occur. Positive cash flow can have a fabulous effect on penny stocks because speculators notice them and realize they’re on their way.

Penny stocks must be heavily subsidized by external sources, have an important cash position, or positive earnings to fund ongoing operations and expansions, maintain established order, and / or milk certain strategic possibilities for growth.

Debt

Many corporations find themselves encumbered with heavy and occasionally ham-fisted debt in the early growth phases and start up processes. These can detrimental in a number of ways. One of these ways, which is almost straight away conspicuous, is the cut of profit that loan payments seem to stifle. Creditors could also opt to collect on the entire debt infrequently, which can cripple an operation. And then there’s the issue that some creditors like to exhibit a great amount of control for the businesses they fund, which leads to an enormous struggle between the control of the bank and the independence if entrepreneurs.

Till a company is established enough for the revenue to exceed expenses, debt will continue growing. This of course will not hold true if the company offers dilutive stock offerings or gives up a major amount of control to investors.

The assets of a business include all of the cash, inventory, and physical property that a company owns for which afinancial worth can be assigned. The total of acompanies assets can offer an excellent picture of the general health of that company. As an example a corporation that has $1 bn. worth of assets and is only $100 Million in operational expenses should be able to meet their costs for a while.

Also acorporation that has many various assets that would be sold to raise capital it could also be seen as a solid investment. Use caution that you confirm the value of those assets and are certain that those assets arenot basically liabilities.

Liabilities

While the things of value owned by a company are its assets, the things that cost the company money or impair growth would be considered liabilities. The lower this number, the better investment potential the company is. It is very important that you never choose to speculate in an organization that has larger liabilities than assets. The goal is to discover a company with at least a twelve ration of assets and liabilities in order for that company to have a fair amount of respiring room for emergencies and growing pains that may arise.

If you don’t have at least this minimum information about a company, then you are actually not ready to invest in that particular company. Even though it’s great to jump in and get things going, it is even better when you can start out with a mark in the win category rather than a loss. The surface picture of a company may seem rosy always do a bit of digging to see what you come up with before making the plunge. Never be afraid to study potential investments before you buy.

There’s a bunch of cash to be made trading penny stocks. You just need to know where to search for the opportunities, plan the trade, then trade the plan.

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Mortgage Quote: A Glimpse of Your Actual Mortgage. Useful Information to Bear in Mind

In all major purchases and undertakings we make, quotes are vital to see if we can meet the expense of a particular program or project and if we are able to get the greatest deal from among the numerous deals various companies are offering to address what we need and want. This is additionally true if we have plans of getting a mortgage.

A mortgage quote is an estimate or offer made by lending companies to potential borrowers for a home mortgage. It usually contains the estimated monthly payments you need to give for a home mortgage

A mortgage quote is influenced by many crucial factors for instance the sort of the loan you want to avail of, the number of years you need to pay the mortgage and your credit report. Mortgage quotes differ from one lender to another so, it is good to check and try out the different mortgage quotes offered by various lenders. The Internet is an extremely good source to get each online lender’s mortgage quote.

Besides being able to get the best deal among lending and mortgage companies, mortgage quotes are vital in purchasing or refinancing such that you additionally get to know the latest mortgage rates in the market. Mortgage rates fluctuate and change every time even every hour for every state (if you did not know this, mortgage rates vary from state to state). Because of this, it is important that you check the mortgage rates frequently and check if there is an expiration date coupled with the mortgage quotes you got.

When getting a mortgage quote, you additionally have to make sure that you are well-informed not only of the interest of the mortgage but other information as well such as knowing if the loan is interest-only or is the principal being paid off at the same time while paying. It is additionally vital to be well-informed and knowledgeable about the terms of your home mortgage or loan. There are various types and categories of mortgages and loans and several types of interest and paying periods can be applied to all.

Besides all of these, it is critical that you make certain that the mortgage quote you get from lending companies that you are interested in should include information about other costs that you are expected to pay should you avail of their mortgage programs. Some of these incorporate property taxes, closing costs, insurance costs, PMI costs and other miscellaneous costs which are all necessary expenses and rates to be knowledgeable of when you are still thinking how much you can afford for a mortgage loan.

There are lots of lending companies out there who are willing to give you a mortgage quote but before filling in their forms, make sure that these mortgage companies are trustworthy and have good and standing record.

To do this, shop around and at the same time, try out the mortgage quote being offered that you think will work best for you and your situation. Although the Internet can be an extremely rich source of listings of lending companies, it is also good to try and check out mortgage quotes offered by local lenders through your local newspapers and magazines and in your telephone directory. Some local lending companies can in addition be as competitive and as good as the internet companies. This is as well much favorable for a borrower who wants a personal touch when being assisted with his mortgage quote and other lending needs.

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Learn SEO, Social Media & Digital PR from TopRank

There are many ways for company marketers to advance their knowledge in the digital marketing and PR space. A big part of TopRank’s consulting services are to provide clients with education so they can better implement recommendations and promote the advantages of SEO, Social Media and Optimized PR in house. We’re also active participants towards industry education on these topics through speaking at conferences.

September is the calm before the storm of speaking events for TopRank but October and November are packed with opportunities to learn strategy, hear case studies and understand specific tactics for implementation on the topics of Search Engine Optimization, Social Media Marketing and Online Public Relations. Here are our upcoming events. We hope to see you there:

Oct 5, 2009 – MIMA Summit, Hilton Minneapolis

The Intersection of SEO and Social Media
Successful social media efforts build community, better connect brands with customers and can influence both media coverage and increased sales. Yet implementing a social media marketing program without optimizing content for search is literally “leaving money on the table.” Useful social content (blog, video, images, audio and applications) that cannot be discovered via search is a lost opportunity to reach audiences that are looking. Why do so many companies fail to leverage their participation on the social web for SEO? This session will provide specific “Do’s and Don’ts” of social media optimization and provide attendees practical examples of how companies can leverage SEO and social media content to improve their search marketing performance. This is a solo presentation by Lee Odden of TopRank Online Marketing.

Oct 19, 2009 – DMA09 Conference, San Diego Convention Center

Search Engine Marketing Experience
If you’re an in-house marketer that’s frustrated with your current SEO campaign (or new to SEO and need some basic tips), this is the session for you! Thought leaders are on hand to teach you everything you need to succeed with your SEO campaign—from SEO 101 to advanced technical and conversion tips. Two sessions (morning & afternoon) will be led by SEO Copywriting and Content Strategy expert, Heather Lloyd Martin. TopRank CEO Lee Odden will participate in the morning site review session.

Oct 22, 2009 – Digital PR Next Practices Summit, Grand Hyatt New York

Search Engine Marketing, Optimization and How to Write for the Web
Every element of digital communications has its own degree of importance, but there is one thing that consistently ties it all together: Search. In this vein, knowing how to optimize Web content for search is as crucial as knowing how to write Web content that supports your messaging, heightens engagement and meets bottom-line goals. This panel will untangle the Web of confusion surrounding how search engine optimization and marketing actually work; it will also provide you with the tools that will make media professionals and journalists more apt to engage with your brands online. Speakers include Daina Middleton and Lee Odden.

Oct 29, 2009 – MN PRSA Conference, Minneapolis Metropolitan Ballroom, Golden Valley

Breakout sessions on Social Media:
1) Panel discussion on social media – Rick Mahn, Lee Odden, Albert Maruggi & Greg Swan

2) Taking iMarketing to the next level with the intersection of SEO & Social Media for PR– Lee Odden

Nov 7, 2009 – PRSA 2009 International Conference, San Diego Marriott Hotel & Marina
Looking Ahead: The Nexus of Social Media and Public Relations
Where do news releases, media training, message development and the tenets of crisis management fit into the new world communications order? A panel of thought-leading professionals shares examples of successful social edia/public relations programs across a range of industries. Learn how to jump-start promising new media tools and channels in your organization and incorporate them with many of the core public relations skills you’ve honed over the years. This panel is moderated by PR industry veteran, Peter Himler this panel includes: Rick Clancy, David Bradfield, Rob Key and Lee Odden.

Help Google Find Your Releases: Top 10 Search Engine Optimization Tactics for Public Relations Professionals
Nine out of 10 journalists, reporters and editors use search engines to do their jobs, according to a recent survey by TopRank Online Marketing. In this environment, public relations professionals must understand the ins and outs of search engine optimization (SEO). Find out how to choose the best key words, optimize your newsroom and press releases, build better links and sell SEO to decision makers. Plus, attendees will learn the No. 1 SEO tactic to implement today. This is a 75 minute workshop by Lee Odden.

Nov 10, 2009 – WebmasterWorld Pubcon, Las Vegas Convention Center
How do Social Media & Search Intersect? –  Does social media prevent the need for search? Does social media play an important role in search? This session will discuss both worlds with moderators Vanessa Fox & Brian Carter plus speakers: Tony Adam, David Wallace, Bill Hartzer and Lee Odden

How SMBs Can Use PR Campaigns to Grow Traffic - Online PR has become a profound contributor to search engine optimization as well as proving to be its own qualified driving channel. This presentation will show how small businesses can take advantage of online PR to increase traffic links, and how to overall do good business. Moderators Alex Bennert & Taylor Pratt plus speakers: Jiyan Wei, Lee Odden & Sean Jackson

Search Bloggers : What’s Hot and Trending? – This session is a round-table discussion featuring the prime bloggers and reporters of search examining the state of the industry moderated by Greg Hartnett and with panelists: Michael McDonald, Barry Schwartz, Lee Odden & Loren

ID Thieves Strike Fed Chief’s Bank Account

After the wife of Ben Bernanke had her purse stolen last summer, the couple's checking account was swept up into an elaborate identity theft scheme. Losses from the fraud totaled more than $2.1 million and involved at least 10 financial institutions, court documents said.

U.S. Consumer Spending Report at Forefront of Forex Trading Today

Forex trading to today are set to be driven by a batch of data from both the U.S. and Britain. The main release from the U.S. today that traders are waiting for is the Consumer Spending, also known as the Personal Spending report from the U.S. at 12:30 GMT. Forecasts put the figure at roughly 0.2% in July, about half the increase of June. However, the rise is mainly owed to the cash-for-clunkers program. Despite this, a positive figure may actually hurt the USD, as such a result could increase risk appetite. Therefore, in order to take advantage of end-of-week market behavior, open your positions in the USD, EUR, and GBP now.

USD - USD Falls Steeply on Thin Trading and Market Optimism

After a period of steady appreciation, the USD took a sharp nose dive at the end of European market hours to close yesterday's trading at 1.4364 versus the EUR, 1.6284 against the Pound, and 1.0877 against the CAD. The greenback fell due to several reasons that are linked to thin summer trading.

First, with Crude Oil advancing from industrial growth worldwide, the USD is experiencing some downward pressure from commodity purchases. With growth being forecast on the horizon, safety investments like the USD are losing some of their appeal. While the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States shrank less than expected, many economists are anticipating a rally in US stocks, Crude Oil prices, and riskier investments. These all point to further downward pressure on the Dollar in the days ahead. As such, yesterday's sharp drop was inevitable.

If today's figures on Personal Income and Personal Spending in the US confirm the rising trend of growth, the USD could see some added downward pressure. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report will also give credibility to these assumptions if it reveals market optimism is on the rise. Traders may anticipate a bearish Dollar if economic news continues to support these latest trends.

EUR - EUR Remains Bullish at End of Month Trading

The EUR's bullish rally against all major currency pairs continued yesterday with a surprising reversal to the EUR/USD's recent downtrend coming at the close of European markets. Closing at a surprising 1.4364 against the greenback, the EUR made significant gains on recent boosts to market optimism, risk appetite, and thin market trading. As the month comes to an end, a significant level of position shifting takes place and some trends may see a reversal at the start of September.

Market data from the Euro-Zone and Britain has lately put a positive spin on the 16-nation currency. Germany's Ifo Business Climate report on Wednesday showed an improvement to investor confidence in the German economy and other data yesterday continued adding momentum. While Britain's economic figures may also show positive data, the level of confidence in the British banking system, as well as their influx of cash from their quantitative easing program, has put a downward spin on the GBP. This trend may not come to an end anytime soon, but end of month trading usually generates enough volatility to surprise even the most veteran traders.

As for today, the Euro-Zone isn't scheduled to release any significant reports, but the British government will release its Revised GDP figures showing that Britain's economy likely shrank by 0.8% last quarter. Switzerland will also publish its KOF Economic Barometer today, measuring the relative strength of the Swiss economy. This report has the potential to add a level of volatility to the CHF not typically experienced in the average trading week.

JPY - JPY Ends August with Batch of Poor Data

Yesterday was a day of bearishness for the Japanese Yen. Losing on all fronts, the JPY finished the day at 134.48 against the EUR, 152.35 versus the GBP, and stable at 93.64 against the Dollar. With the recent surge in market optimism, combined with thin trading at the end of the month, the Japanese Yen has faced surmounting downward pressure as safe-havens are losing their appeal.

Adding to this downward momentum was a batch of negative data releases from Tokyo at the start of Friday's trading session. Household spending, Japanese CPI, and Japan's Unemployment Rate all showed worse than expected numbers, with unemployment climbing to 5.7% last month. Closing out the month with such abysmal data definitely does not help the JPY's strength.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil's Appeal as Alternative Investment on the Rise

The appeal of Crude Oil investments rose yesterday after the US Dollar weakened on thin trading, growing risk appetite, increasing demand for energy, and end of month investment shifting. As Crude Oil prices rose for the first time in 3 days, investors flocked to the commodity as an alternative investment. Failing to breach the $70 support level, the price of a barrel of Light Sweet Crude subsequently rose back to $72.68 by the end of Thursday's trading hours.

With global economies beginning to show signs of recovery, and countries such as Australia already on their way to substantial growth, energy prices are expected to pick up in the near future. Likewise, as strength returns to the market, the safety of the US Dollar will fall alongside it, adding further support to Crude Oil prices. A near-term target of $75 a barrel has become a popular goal for many speculators as a result.

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